Why No Team Should Trade For Kai Jones
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2022 2:03 am
The Pistons have currently assembled one of the most monstrous starting lineups in the league’s history, and they’re fresh off their second championship in a row, heading for a third. Though the landscape in Omega has gotten more competitive (with the Bucks cashing in to get Bey and surround him with a strong team, the Thunder adding Gauss to a core of Blakeney and Alleman and the Wizards making trades to add cheap win now talent without compromising their future pieces), the Pistons are still the odds on favorites to win it all again.
However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but it only works if all of the other GMs in the league hold strong and don’t trade for Kai Jones. Instead, if this 25(-ish) prisoner dilemma can hold true, the Pistons could lose Kai Jones for nothing and the league can restore balance to stop them from winning four or five championships in a row. The longevity of the league is at stake, and while PBSL isn’t immortal, a team too indestructible to lose with a tax burden too grave to blow it up could spell doom for all but the most patient, dedicated GMs.
The problem is, Kai Jones is young, he’s great, and he’s rare. There are a lot of decent centers in the league, but he’s the only big man with purple potential. Purple bigs rarely hit their potentials due to the way that the current vs. potential system works. When a big guy has a purple potential, it’s just about foregone that their potentials in all the big man categories (rebounding, blocks, post defense, inside scoring) could be well over 100. It might not be possible for them to ever reach purple current because we don’t allow current ratings to exceed 100. But that doesn’t make Jones any less enticing. His A range categories will reach 100-level and stay there for a good, long time. Jones will be solid blue for his next contract, which will cover his peak years, and he’ll remain blue for the contract after that. That’s 8-9 seasons of certainty at the center spot. For the right deal, that may be worth lengthening Detroit’s run a couple seasons longer.
But not all teams are created equal, and since time is of the essence, only a handful of teams might have a mutually beneficial package to get Kai Jones. Scott’s not going to give him away for free, and as one of the most successful GMs in PBSL history, he’s probably not going to settle for a deal that’s even slightly lopsided enough to where the return doesn’t guarantee a longer run at the top. So here’s why every team either can’t afford Kai Jones, except for the ones that can. And for those, here’s why they shouldn’t.
* All probabilities listed below are arbitrary and not Vegas official.
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks are one team we absolutely do not have to worry about going for Kai Jones. For all intents and purposes, the Mavs should be considered an open team right now. Even when LPH was around, he took too long to respond to PMs so most trade offers—even ones he wanted to accept—were not available by the time he actually came around to accepting them.
Even so, there’s nothing on the Mavs roster that would help the Pistons. Detroit needs a big man comparable to Kai Jones on a longer contract. Dallas is a year or two away from being an open slate, which should be a dream way for a mentor GM with an interested friend to bank a bunch of points.
In short, not even a returning TrayWithAnA could swoop in, take over the Mavs, and come up with a package that would help Scott out.
PROBABILITY: 1,000,000 to 1
Toronto Raptors
Another team that’s not a huge risk of trading with the Pistons to give them a bigger championship window, the Raptors are like the Mavs, only on an upswing. With a newer GM, the Raptors are hopefully just in the growing pains stage and will get more active as the GM learns the ropes. He’s already made some solid moves, but letting Johnston walk in RFA in the offseason was the opposite of that.
Mobley is a great big, but he’s expiring, too, and with no activity in UFA so far, they weren’t able to grab someone to fit the bill.
PROBABILITY: 500,000 to 1
New York Knicks
Now we finally start to wade in the waters of possibility, and with Dr. K’s New York Knicks, that’s a really unlikely doorway to reality. In any case, Douglas Haun would put 2 more years of championship potential in the Pistons’ pocket. Haun’s a massively talented player, held back only by his fouls. Haun hasn’t been able to stay in games, averaging over 4 fouls per game for the last 5 seasons while being held under 30 minutes in all of them (averaging 26.3 mpg over that span).
For that reason, Scott may think twice about a straight up swap, and the Knicks don’t have much to sweeten the deal. And when it comes to trade philosophy, the Pistons and Knicks GMs are probably on two different planets. If the Knicks did have a package Scott would accept, there’s no doubt in my mind that Dr. K would do it just to sit back and watch the world burn.
PROBABILITY: 50,000 to 1
Orlando Magic
Roster-wise, the Orlando Magic have Ken Dirks, who is a similar player to Doug Haun on the Knicks. GM-wise, the Orlando Magic have false9, who is not a similar GM to the Knicks. I doubt the Magic would make a trade if they thought it would ruin the very fabric of the league. But I also doubt that a deal makes sense. Dirks is a little bit behind Haun in his progression, so while they have similar ceilings, Dirks might not be a strong enough player yet to guarantee Detroit multiple rings. He’s also got a little bit of a fouling issue.
None of the other Magic stars are on long contracts, meaning unless Scott referred someone to take over the Mavs, nobody would really help him out for more than this season, which he already has in the bag with Kai Jones anyway (presumably).
PROBABILITY: 75,000 to 1
Houston Rockets
The Rockets are another team we don’t have to worry about, so the outlook for the league so far is still somewhat optimistic. They could do things salary wise with a combo of Mitch Robinson and a wing like Kispert or Morelock, but even their more expensive stars in Silva and Suggs are expiring. Robinson’s the only starter caliber player that’s locked up for an additional year, and at M.Rob’s age at that contract price, it’s almost an auto-decline for the purposes of locking in the signing this season.
The Rockets (like the Magic) are missing the ability to trade picks, so there isn’t much here to worry about.
PROBABILITY: 75,000 to 1
Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers are one season away from escaping tax-jail, so having Kai Jones would be a great head start for their first offseason with full maneuverability. Unfortunately, the current roster looks like one would expect from a team decimated by years of tax jail (TAKE A GOOD LOOK, SCOTT!) The only long term contract is Simon Lenz, a guy who makes Douglas Haun look like a model citizen.
PROBABILITY: 76,000 to 1 (See what I did there?)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Now here’s where things get interesting. If I’m AngryBanana, I’m looking at the Pistons situation and looking at my own roster. Kai Jones is undoubtedly an upgrade over Charles Aleman, and if Alleman and his three year contract (and his foul trouble) isn’t enough for the Pistons, they have some pieces they could send (although Mahmoud wouldn’t do the Pistons much good heading right into RFA).
For the Pistons, they’d have to ask if Alleman plus like, points, picks, and o/g rookies would be the best they could do. I’d say no. For the Thunder, they have to ask if upgrading to Kai Jones leaves them with enough room to fill the other holes in their roster with trades elsewhere. If they don’t have to send Mahmoud to the Pistons, they could, but they’d have to scramble to do it.
Is it impossible? No. Is it likely? Also no, but it’s a lot closer than anything we’ve seen so far.
PROBABILITY: 10,000 yo 1
San Antonio Spurs
I’m sure there’s nothing that would make the Spurs look scarier than adding Kai Jones without having to give up one of their big three. But the constants in San Antonio that have been there for a while now have been Montoya, Whitley, and taxes. I don’t see SAS moving Montoya for Jones, or anything short of a tumescent rebuild package.
Other than that, the Spurs don’t have anything of value to a buyer than a rotating cast of min salary cusp starters at the center spot. Any green current big boy who will do dirty work without taking shots from the purples will do.
PROBABILITY: 100,000 to 1
Milwaukee Bucks
It’s Doug we’re talking about here, so it’s likelier that Doug trades for Kai Jones and than trades him back than it is that half the GMs in this league trade at all this season. Especially the ones that don’t answer their PMs. The Bucks have been so active in the off-season that I’m not completely sure who’s on their roster right now, but there’s almost certainly nobody who’s eligible to be traded until day 60, and without a long term big on the Bucks roster following the Sims trade (and my spider senses telling me that Doug had to have at least tried a Sims/Murphy III package already and that must not have been enough), it seems like a trade would be hard to come by personnel-wise.
Still, it’s Doug we’re talking about here. The original Slimelord. And trade deadline is still 8 sims away.
PROBABILITY: 5,000 to 1
Indiana Pacers
Pauly and Scott have pulled off some interesting trades in the past, so a reconnect here wouldn’t be beyond the realm of reason. I don’t, however, think the Pacers have the personnel to send someone up north unless Scott really believed in a small ball lineup. The closest player to a replacement Center that the Pacers could send would be Patrick Williams, and beyond him, not much else.
Of course, the Pistons could easily trade for a player at any position and go San Antonio style on the center spot as plenty passable bigs who go for min contracts have won champs in Alamo City.
PROBABILITY: 15,000 to 1
Washington Wizards
I’m stroking my chin at the Wizards offseason moves so far, as I oftentimes do, even though they generally do work out well for xist. And even if they don’t get Kai Jones directly, it wouldn’t surprise me if they were a third team in this deal, sending out a few points to get some sidepiece.
With plenty of cap space available, the Wizards have a little more flexibility than other teams, but without the right players, the Wizards have a little less ammunition than most of the remaining teams. Of the players on their roster, none of them are the trademark giants we’re so used to seeing in DC.
PROBABILITY: 50,000 to 1
Sacramento Kings
Jesus Christ, Killian Hayes is going to make 93 million dollars in the 2051 season if the Kings don’t decline that contract.
PROBABILITY: 999,999 to 1
Phoenix Suns
I’m really running out of ways to say that teams just don’t have the long term contracts and combinations of players that would make a Kai Jones trade worthwhile for the Pistons, but teams just don’t have the long term contracts and combinations of players that would make a Kai Jones trade worthwhile for the Pistons, and the Suns are one of those teams. They’ve got He Hot for 3 seasons, and Kevon Looney for 3 seasons, but at this point in the article, I’m not sure a Hor/Looney package would make sense for either team. The Suns, with the trade for Looney last season, seem caught between competing and backing off. The resign of He Hor signifies that they’re not full on rebuilding, but that could also just be the mentality of not wanting to lose a guy for nothing. I’m sure we’ll see How on the block at some point, just not in a Pistons uniform.
PROBABILITY: 75,000 to 1
New Orleans Pelicans
Finally, here’s another team with the firepower to get something done, and with the recent acquisition of Dort, they’ve got some reason to keep making moves, too. The day 60 trade I see as possible here would be a package with Kornett, Diop, and Milam. I really like Kornett as a starting caliber Center (although not enough to want to lock him up for long term on a rebuilding team), and Diop’s a rookie, so the Pistons would have 4 years (and the insurance slots) to keep his potentials high and trade him for a win now piece down the road if necessary. Milam is mostly a salary piece, but he’d be decent enough depth on a championship team for a season or two.
The question is, is this enough for Scott? Kornett is good (and tall), but he’s a steep downgrade from Kai Jones in some important defensive areas. Diop is a blue potential rookie, but he’s one of those late lotto blues.
If the Pistons were game, however, the Pelicans would need to ignore the guidance of Roberto, who surely doesn’t want a Pistons dynasty to eclipse the longevity of PBSL right before Safi becomes a factor.
PROBABILITY: 7,500 to 1
Portland Trailblazers
The Trailblazers GM appears somewhat randomly and makes some moves that show he’s still in the game while missing out on other moves. For example, Ousmene Dieng is in a Clippers uniform now after not signing anywhere during RFA. While they missed out on protecting that player, they did go out and get Kofi Cockburn and Moses Moody. They don’t have a worthwhile player, however, over 6’6, despite having some good win-now guys in Kuric, Cockburn, and Moody and some good win-later pieces in Alston and Johnson. The Trailblazers are all over the map right now. The talent is there, the position is not, and the consistency of showing up and sifting through seasons worth of PMs from Doug to find one from Scott makes this a very improbable trade scenario.
PROBABILITY: 999,999 to 1
Los Angeles (LAL) Lakers
I have no idea what’s going on in LA, but grapple is probably on some of those good California drugs right now while he’s missing UFA completely and camping. After trading for Emoni Bates, the Lakers completely changed course and dealt Darius Garland to the Bucks, giving Palazzo denizens everywhere hope that Doug’s strategy of “don’t stop asking until they say yes” will work in real life. I heard some rumblings that Leathers could be an interesting pickup for the Pistons, but I feel like there’d still be additional cost. Murphy III? Any of the 30 o/g players on the Lakers roster? Who knows. If there’s something there for Scott, it probably comes down to whether or not greeple has some weird epiphany on his camping trip.
PROBABILITY: 3,333 to 1
Atlanta Hawks
Louie’s in the tax forever, so he doesn’t have any players that Scott would want for a win-now return. But it’s still possible if Scott wants to take a less direct route and trade Kai Jones for a bunch of rookie contract guys he can reflip. I guess a three-way deal is still possible here, too, if anyone’s selling a center. If both teams send the Hawks points, a mutually advantageous deal could happen, but I’m also not sure what Louie’s motivations are to do anything as the Hawks. He’s not tallying his point bank or actively doing anything, but since he’s been amenable to deals if a pal suggests them to him, it could happen again if some seasoned GM with no scruples needed the Hawks to be involved.
PROBABILITY: 5,001 to 1
Chicago Bulls
I know I traded Daily to the Pistons, so I should be the last person preaching on why NOT to trade for Kai Jones. But I also don’t have any win now players. I could go the three team route, but I know I don’t have a Kai Jones offer in mind that makes sense for what I want to do with this team. I’m not saying I wouldn’t trade with Scott again, but I am saying it’s not going to be for Kai Jones and it’s not going to be this season.
PROBABILITY: 1,000,001 to 1
Utah Jazz
Now this is the one I’m the most scared of. Gary resigned Les Kim to a supermax. At 27, Les Kim will be at his peak the whole time. In my opinion, Les Kim for Kai Jones is almost a perfect trade. Gary’s a wildcard, but the only reason I see for the Jazz not to do this trade is if Gary has a very reasonable fear that he’ll forget to pay the tax next offseason and lose Kai Jones due to clerical oversight. The only reason Scott doesn’t do this is if he thinks the reigning DPOY and an incredibly efficient big man scorer needs an add-on to make a deal worthwhile. It doesn’t. And each team would get some points for trade of the year.
The last hope that this doesn’t happen is that if Gary is looking to win a championship with a core of Zaire Wade, Talen Horton-Tucker, and Kai Jones, this would greatly strengthen the Pistons during that same window. The Jazz with Les Kim instead of Kai Jones may not be better than a Pistons team without Kai Jones next season, but it sure would be closer to that team than it would be to a Pistons team with Les Kim. The upgrade, in this instance, may not be worth the invincibility it gives to the top competition. Then again…
Wildcard, bitches.
PROBABILITY: 10 to 1
Minnesota Timberwolves
Xue Hoe and Lenz Durrenberger would be great running mates for Jones once their talents all line up, but that could be down the road. The play would’ve been offering a long term contract to resign Lyman Bradley and package him with Jauregui or something. Instead the T-Wolves picked Xue Hoe at #1 and were content with that determining the direction of the franchise. Beyond Hoe and Durrenberger, it doesn’t seem like the Wolves front office cares much about what happens. They’ll be ready to go once those two are ready to compete and are fine sitting it out until then.
However, Kai would fit well with that plan. Get him, check in to supermax him next offseason, and a competitive team is just a couple seasons away. Without Bradley, though, Gary Giles isn’t as solid of a replacement. Detroit doesn’t have as much incentive to deal here, at least not as a top option.
PROBABILITY: 10,000 to 1
Los Angeles (LAC) Clippers
Before I started writing this article, I would’ve said the Clippers didn’t have the firepower to make a deal happen. They wouldn’t trade Safi (and rightfully so), and Raiquan Gray might not satisfy the Pistons asking price alone (though it should be close).
Then, the Dort trade happened, which did two things. First, it showed that the Clippers are retooling and thinking more about the (not-so-distant) future than the present. Second, it netted them EJ Lidell, a solid, but not game-changing rookie contract guy who could balance the scales on a Raiquan for Kai Jones swap.
We know that Roberto’s one of the most thorough GMs on the trade market with a proven history of smart maneuvering. If things can wait until day 60, this is a very feasible scenario.
Of course, when you’re the commissioner, there are MUCH easier ways to end the league.
PROBABILITY: 9 to 1
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets just don’t have the long term contracts and combinations of players that would make a Kai Jones trade worthwhile for the Pistons, and with the future hinging on an o/b trio that’s going to be gangbusters when they develop, there’s not much urgency for the Nets to make a move like this. Especially when we’ve already established that Kai’s going to LA, and the Pistons and Clippers will win the next dozen championships.
PROBABILITY: 75,000 to 1
Cleveland Cavaliers
Something, something Mason Dixon. Something, something Geronimo Rubio De La Rosa. Something about not being enough. Oh, what does it matter anymore. Even if it’s not Raiquan Gray, that Les Kim option’s still out there, and while the Jazz would likely never be unbeatable with a Jones trade, the Pistons would still have 3 for sure seasons and could easily do similar churning with Gerry Folse to extend that window as long as they can rake up a big tax bill.
PROBABILITY: Who cares?
Denver Nuggets
The syndicate is not only the Nuggets current GM, but he did the tax rules for a long time. Perhaps he would have some ideas on how to change the PBSL tax code to prevent things like this from happening. The Pistons could win 10 in a row at this rate.
PROBABILITY: About 99% sure I’m over 3,000 words by now.
Miami Heat
The Heat just don’t have the long term contracts and combinations of players that would make a Kai Jones trade worthwhile for the Pistons.
PROBABILITY: 999,998 to 1
However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but it only works if all of the other GMs in the league hold strong and don’t trade for Kai Jones. Instead, if this 25(-ish) prisoner dilemma can hold true, the Pistons could lose Kai Jones for nothing and the league can restore balance to stop them from winning four or five championships in a row. The longevity of the league is at stake, and while PBSL isn’t immortal, a team too indestructible to lose with a tax burden too grave to blow it up could spell doom for all but the most patient, dedicated GMs.
The problem is, Kai Jones is young, he’s great, and he’s rare. There are a lot of decent centers in the league, but he’s the only big man with purple potential. Purple bigs rarely hit their potentials due to the way that the current vs. potential system works. When a big guy has a purple potential, it’s just about foregone that their potentials in all the big man categories (rebounding, blocks, post defense, inside scoring) could be well over 100. It might not be possible for them to ever reach purple current because we don’t allow current ratings to exceed 100. But that doesn’t make Jones any less enticing. His A range categories will reach 100-level and stay there for a good, long time. Jones will be solid blue for his next contract, which will cover his peak years, and he’ll remain blue for the contract after that. That’s 8-9 seasons of certainty at the center spot. For the right deal, that may be worth lengthening Detroit’s run a couple seasons longer.
But not all teams are created equal, and since time is of the essence, only a handful of teams might have a mutually beneficial package to get Kai Jones. Scott’s not going to give him away for free, and as one of the most successful GMs in PBSL history, he’s probably not going to settle for a deal that’s even slightly lopsided enough to where the return doesn’t guarantee a longer run at the top. So here’s why every team either can’t afford Kai Jones, except for the ones that can. And for those, here’s why they shouldn’t.
* All probabilities listed below are arbitrary and not Vegas official.
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks are one team we absolutely do not have to worry about going for Kai Jones. For all intents and purposes, the Mavs should be considered an open team right now. Even when LPH was around, he took too long to respond to PMs so most trade offers—even ones he wanted to accept—were not available by the time he actually came around to accepting them.
Even so, there’s nothing on the Mavs roster that would help the Pistons. Detroit needs a big man comparable to Kai Jones on a longer contract. Dallas is a year or two away from being an open slate, which should be a dream way for a mentor GM with an interested friend to bank a bunch of points.
In short, not even a returning TrayWithAnA could swoop in, take over the Mavs, and come up with a package that would help Scott out.
PROBABILITY: 1,000,000 to 1
Toronto Raptors
Another team that’s not a huge risk of trading with the Pistons to give them a bigger championship window, the Raptors are like the Mavs, only on an upswing. With a newer GM, the Raptors are hopefully just in the growing pains stage and will get more active as the GM learns the ropes. He’s already made some solid moves, but letting Johnston walk in RFA in the offseason was the opposite of that.
Mobley is a great big, but he’s expiring, too, and with no activity in UFA so far, they weren’t able to grab someone to fit the bill.
PROBABILITY: 500,000 to 1
New York Knicks
Now we finally start to wade in the waters of possibility, and with Dr. K’s New York Knicks, that’s a really unlikely doorway to reality. In any case, Douglas Haun would put 2 more years of championship potential in the Pistons’ pocket. Haun’s a massively talented player, held back only by his fouls. Haun hasn’t been able to stay in games, averaging over 4 fouls per game for the last 5 seasons while being held under 30 minutes in all of them (averaging 26.3 mpg over that span).
For that reason, Scott may think twice about a straight up swap, and the Knicks don’t have much to sweeten the deal. And when it comes to trade philosophy, the Pistons and Knicks GMs are probably on two different planets. If the Knicks did have a package Scott would accept, there’s no doubt in my mind that Dr. K would do it just to sit back and watch the world burn.
PROBABILITY: 50,000 to 1
Orlando Magic
Roster-wise, the Orlando Magic have Ken Dirks, who is a similar player to Doug Haun on the Knicks. GM-wise, the Orlando Magic have false9, who is not a similar GM to the Knicks. I doubt the Magic would make a trade if they thought it would ruin the very fabric of the league. But I also doubt that a deal makes sense. Dirks is a little bit behind Haun in his progression, so while they have similar ceilings, Dirks might not be a strong enough player yet to guarantee Detroit multiple rings. He’s also got a little bit of a fouling issue.
None of the other Magic stars are on long contracts, meaning unless Scott referred someone to take over the Mavs, nobody would really help him out for more than this season, which he already has in the bag with Kai Jones anyway (presumably).
PROBABILITY: 75,000 to 1
Houston Rockets
The Rockets are another team we don’t have to worry about, so the outlook for the league so far is still somewhat optimistic. They could do things salary wise with a combo of Mitch Robinson and a wing like Kispert or Morelock, but even their more expensive stars in Silva and Suggs are expiring. Robinson’s the only starter caliber player that’s locked up for an additional year, and at M.Rob’s age at that contract price, it’s almost an auto-decline for the purposes of locking in the signing this season.
The Rockets (like the Magic) are missing the ability to trade picks, so there isn’t much here to worry about.
PROBABILITY: 75,000 to 1
Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers are one season away from escaping tax-jail, so having Kai Jones would be a great head start for their first offseason with full maneuverability. Unfortunately, the current roster looks like one would expect from a team decimated by years of tax jail (TAKE A GOOD LOOK, SCOTT!) The only long term contract is Simon Lenz, a guy who makes Douglas Haun look like a model citizen.
PROBABILITY: 76,000 to 1 (See what I did there?)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Now here’s where things get interesting. If I’m AngryBanana, I’m looking at the Pistons situation and looking at my own roster. Kai Jones is undoubtedly an upgrade over Charles Aleman, and if Alleman and his three year contract (and his foul trouble) isn’t enough for the Pistons, they have some pieces they could send (although Mahmoud wouldn’t do the Pistons much good heading right into RFA).
For the Pistons, they’d have to ask if Alleman plus like, points, picks, and o/g rookies would be the best they could do. I’d say no. For the Thunder, they have to ask if upgrading to Kai Jones leaves them with enough room to fill the other holes in their roster with trades elsewhere. If they don’t have to send Mahmoud to the Pistons, they could, but they’d have to scramble to do it.
Is it impossible? No. Is it likely? Also no, but it’s a lot closer than anything we’ve seen so far.
PROBABILITY: 10,000 yo 1
San Antonio Spurs
I’m sure there’s nothing that would make the Spurs look scarier than adding Kai Jones without having to give up one of their big three. But the constants in San Antonio that have been there for a while now have been Montoya, Whitley, and taxes. I don’t see SAS moving Montoya for Jones, or anything short of a tumescent rebuild package.
Other than that, the Spurs don’t have anything of value to a buyer than a rotating cast of min salary cusp starters at the center spot. Any green current big boy who will do dirty work without taking shots from the purples will do.
PROBABILITY: 100,000 to 1
Milwaukee Bucks
It’s Doug we’re talking about here, so it’s likelier that Doug trades for Kai Jones and than trades him back than it is that half the GMs in this league trade at all this season. Especially the ones that don’t answer their PMs. The Bucks have been so active in the off-season that I’m not completely sure who’s on their roster right now, but there’s almost certainly nobody who’s eligible to be traded until day 60, and without a long term big on the Bucks roster following the Sims trade (and my spider senses telling me that Doug had to have at least tried a Sims/Murphy III package already and that must not have been enough), it seems like a trade would be hard to come by personnel-wise.
Still, it’s Doug we’re talking about here. The original Slimelord. And trade deadline is still 8 sims away.
PROBABILITY: 5,000 to 1
Indiana Pacers
Pauly and Scott have pulled off some interesting trades in the past, so a reconnect here wouldn’t be beyond the realm of reason. I don’t, however, think the Pacers have the personnel to send someone up north unless Scott really believed in a small ball lineup. The closest player to a replacement Center that the Pacers could send would be Patrick Williams, and beyond him, not much else.
Of course, the Pistons could easily trade for a player at any position and go San Antonio style on the center spot as plenty passable bigs who go for min contracts have won champs in Alamo City.
PROBABILITY: 15,000 to 1
Washington Wizards
I’m stroking my chin at the Wizards offseason moves so far, as I oftentimes do, even though they generally do work out well for xist. And even if they don’t get Kai Jones directly, it wouldn’t surprise me if they were a third team in this deal, sending out a few points to get some sidepiece.
With plenty of cap space available, the Wizards have a little more flexibility than other teams, but without the right players, the Wizards have a little less ammunition than most of the remaining teams. Of the players on their roster, none of them are the trademark giants we’re so used to seeing in DC.
PROBABILITY: 50,000 to 1
Sacramento Kings
Jesus Christ, Killian Hayes is going to make 93 million dollars in the 2051 season if the Kings don’t decline that contract.
PROBABILITY: 999,999 to 1
Phoenix Suns
I’m really running out of ways to say that teams just don’t have the long term contracts and combinations of players that would make a Kai Jones trade worthwhile for the Pistons, but teams just don’t have the long term contracts and combinations of players that would make a Kai Jones trade worthwhile for the Pistons, and the Suns are one of those teams. They’ve got He Hot for 3 seasons, and Kevon Looney for 3 seasons, but at this point in the article, I’m not sure a Hor/Looney package would make sense for either team. The Suns, with the trade for Looney last season, seem caught between competing and backing off. The resign of He Hor signifies that they’re not full on rebuilding, but that could also just be the mentality of not wanting to lose a guy for nothing. I’m sure we’ll see How on the block at some point, just not in a Pistons uniform.
PROBABILITY: 75,000 to 1
New Orleans Pelicans
Finally, here’s another team with the firepower to get something done, and with the recent acquisition of Dort, they’ve got some reason to keep making moves, too. The day 60 trade I see as possible here would be a package with Kornett, Diop, and Milam. I really like Kornett as a starting caliber Center (although not enough to want to lock him up for long term on a rebuilding team), and Diop’s a rookie, so the Pistons would have 4 years (and the insurance slots) to keep his potentials high and trade him for a win now piece down the road if necessary. Milam is mostly a salary piece, but he’d be decent enough depth on a championship team for a season or two.
The question is, is this enough for Scott? Kornett is good (and tall), but he’s a steep downgrade from Kai Jones in some important defensive areas. Diop is a blue potential rookie, but he’s one of those late lotto blues.
If the Pistons were game, however, the Pelicans would need to ignore the guidance of Roberto, who surely doesn’t want a Pistons dynasty to eclipse the longevity of PBSL right before Safi becomes a factor.
PROBABILITY: 7,500 to 1
Portland Trailblazers
The Trailblazers GM appears somewhat randomly and makes some moves that show he’s still in the game while missing out on other moves. For example, Ousmene Dieng is in a Clippers uniform now after not signing anywhere during RFA. While they missed out on protecting that player, they did go out and get Kofi Cockburn and Moses Moody. They don’t have a worthwhile player, however, over 6’6, despite having some good win-now guys in Kuric, Cockburn, and Moody and some good win-later pieces in Alston and Johnson. The Trailblazers are all over the map right now. The talent is there, the position is not, and the consistency of showing up and sifting through seasons worth of PMs from Doug to find one from Scott makes this a very improbable trade scenario.
PROBABILITY: 999,999 to 1
Los Angeles (LAL) Lakers
I have no idea what’s going on in LA, but grapple is probably on some of those good California drugs right now while he’s missing UFA completely and camping. After trading for Emoni Bates, the Lakers completely changed course and dealt Darius Garland to the Bucks, giving Palazzo denizens everywhere hope that Doug’s strategy of “don’t stop asking until they say yes” will work in real life. I heard some rumblings that Leathers could be an interesting pickup for the Pistons, but I feel like there’d still be additional cost. Murphy III? Any of the 30 o/g players on the Lakers roster? Who knows. If there’s something there for Scott, it probably comes down to whether or not greeple has some weird epiphany on his camping trip.
PROBABILITY: 3,333 to 1
Atlanta Hawks
Louie’s in the tax forever, so he doesn’t have any players that Scott would want for a win-now return. But it’s still possible if Scott wants to take a less direct route and trade Kai Jones for a bunch of rookie contract guys he can reflip. I guess a three-way deal is still possible here, too, if anyone’s selling a center. If both teams send the Hawks points, a mutually advantageous deal could happen, but I’m also not sure what Louie’s motivations are to do anything as the Hawks. He’s not tallying his point bank or actively doing anything, but since he’s been amenable to deals if a pal suggests them to him, it could happen again if some seasoned GM with no scruples needed the Hawks to be involved.
PROBABILITY: 5,001 to 1
Chicago Bulls
I know I traded Daily to the Pistons, so I should be the last person preaching on why NOT to trade for Kai Jones. But I also don’t have any win now players. I could go the three team route, but I know I don’t have a Kai Jones offer in mind that makes sense for what I want to do with this team. I’m not saying I wouldn’t trade with Scott again, but I am saying it’s not going to be for Kai Jones and it’s not going to be this season.
PROBABILITY: 1,000,001 to 1
Utah Jazz
Now this is the one I’m the most scared of. Gary resigned Les Kim to a supermax. At 27, Les Kim will be at his peak the whole time. In my opinion, Les Kim for Kai Jones is almost a perfect trade. Gary’s a wildcard, but the only reason I see for the Jazz not to do this trade is if Gary has a very reasonable fear that he’ll forget to pay the tax next offseason and lose Kai Jones due to clerical oversight. The only reason Scott doesn’t do this is if he thinks the reigning DPOY and an incredibly efficient big man scorer needs an add-on to make a deal worthwhile. It doesn’t. And each team would get some points for trade of the year.
The last hope that this doesn’t happen is that if Gary is looking to win a championship with a core of Zaire Wade, Talen Horton-Tucker, and Kai Jones, this would greatly strengthen the Pistons during that same window. The Jazz with Les Kim instead of Kai Jones may not be better than a Pistons team without Kai Jones next season, but it sure would be closer to that team than it would be to a Pistons team with Les Kim. The upgrade, in this instance, may not be worth the invincibility it gives to the top competition. Then again…
Wildcard, bitches.
PROBABILITY: 10 to 1
Minnesota Timberwolves
Xue Hoe and Lenz Durrenberger would be great running mates for Jones once their talents all line up, but that could be down the road. The play would’ve been offering a long term contract to resign Lyman Bradley and package him with Jauregui or something. Instead the T-Wolves picked Xue Hoe at #1 and were content with that determining the direction of the franchise. Beyond Hoe and Durrenberger, it doesn’t seem like the Wolves front office cares much about what happens. They’ll be ready to go once those two are ready to compete and are fine sitting it out until then.
However, Kai would fit well with that plan. Get him, check in to supermax him next offseason, and a competitive team is just a couple seasons away. Without Bradley, though, Gary Giles isn’t as solid of a replacement. Detroit doesn’t have as much incentive to deal here, at least not as a top option.
PROBABILITY: 10,000 to 1
Los Angeles (LAC) Clippers
Before I started writing this article, I would’ve said the Clippers didn’t have the firepower to make a deal happen. They wouldn’t trade Safi (and rightfully so), and Raiquan Gray might not satisfy the Pistons asking price alone (though it should be close).
Then, the Dort trade happened, which did two things. First, it showed that the Clippers are retooling and thinking more about the (not-so-distant) future than the present. Second, it netted them EJ Lidell, a solid, but not game-changing rookie contract guy who could balance the scales on a Raiquan for Kai Jones swap.
We know that Roberto’s one of the most thorough GMs on the trade market with a proven history of smart maneuvering. If things can wait until day 60, this is a very feasible scenario.
Of course, when you’re the commissioner, there are MUCH easier ways to end the league.
PROBABILITY: 9 to 1
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets just don’t have the long term contracts and combinations of players that would make a Kai Jones trade worthwhile for the Pistons, and with the future hinging on an o/b trio that’s going to be gangbusters when they develop, there’s not much urgency for the Nets to make a move like this. Especially when we’ve already established that Kai’s going to LA, and the Pistons and Clippers will win the next dozen championships.
PROBABILITY: 75,000 to 1
Cleveland Cavaliers
Something, something Mason Dixon. Something, something Geronimo Rubio De La Rosa. Something about not being enough. Oh, what does it matter anymore. Even if it’s not Raiquan Gray, that Les Kim option’s still out there, and while the Jazz would likely never be unbeatable with a Jones trade, the Pistons would still have 3 for sure seasons and could easily do similar churning with Gerry Folse to extend that window as long as they can rake up a big tax bill.
PROBABILITY: Who cares?
Denver Nuggets
The syndicate is not only the Nuggets current GM, but he did the tax rules for a long time. Perhaps he would have some ideas on how to change the PBSL tax code to prevent things like this from happening. The Pistons could win 10 in a row at this rate.
PROBABILITY: About 99% sure I’m over 3,000 words by now.
Miami Heat
The Heat just don’t have the long term contracts and combinations of players that would make a Kai Jones trade worthwhile for the Pistons.
PROBABILITY: 999,998 to 1