Wig's Team Futures (Complete!)
Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2015 4:00 pm
These grades are NOT really based on your team's current performance. Rather, they are based on where I feel your current players, cap situation, and picks, are likely to land your team in about three seasons (2004). This entry is for the first half of the alphabet. Look for the second half in the next couple of days.
76ERS - B-
Players: The Sixers have a nice young backcourt brewing with Hamilton and Baron Davis. They can count on keeping both players in RFA after the 2002 season, so they're set quite comfortably for the foreseeable future.
Cap: The Sixers are set to have very little on the books next season and if Erick Dampier opts out could be in an incredibly good cap situation. They will have to tie up quite a bit of cap in 2003 for Davis and Hamilton, but they have as much flexibility as anyone at this point.
Picks: Traded away picks to clear their books; they have the Blazers' 2002 first (late) and their own 2003 first-round pick in case their rebuild-on-the-fly goes sour this season. Would have been nice to see them keep a 2004 pick and/or their own 2002.
BUCKS - B+
Players: Ginobili and Randolph are their marquee future pieces, and Magloire and Mihm are young, cheap, interesting pieces as well. You can see some of the groundwork here, even if it will take time for them to grow. Only complaint is I wish Manu and Z-Bo were a little farther along in their development.
Cap: Most of their money is tied up in rookie deals, and those tend to be longer-term deals at that. The Bucks are in great shape with the cap.
Picks: Their own 2002 pick should net them another solid young piece. I like the Sonics' 2004 pick as well, since the Sonics decided to build old. They also have the Grizzlies' pick in 2003 and their own 2004 pick which should be less valuable as I expect both squads to have more or less grown into their young players' potential by the time these picks come up.
BULLS - A-
Players: Miller, Thomas, Jackson, Bryant, Bibby are a killer young starting five, and Walker, Szczerbiak, and LaFrentz are at least decent bench pieces. The problem is with two of those guys already on max deals and four more hitting RFA this season, the Bulls' cap space is about to wither - they can't keep them all this season, let alone in the future. Realistically, I'd expect them to try to keep their starting five intact and let the other guys walk.
Cap: Their cap looks decent now... until you realize Miller and Bibby are going to get PAID this offseason. Their cap situation will get very bad very fast unless they are willing to lose talent.
Picks: They have their own picks in 2003 and 2004... which, if they keep their talent together, won't be lottery picks but might provide a little depth. Not much future assets to be had here without losing young players.
CAVALIERS - C-
Players: Michael Redd and maybe DerMarr Johnson comprise the young potential here. They have a lot of guys in their late 20's on reasonable contracts that might be flippable for other, younger assets... but for a futures grade, get them no points now. One player to build around is a nice start, but honestly, kind of expected given they're a rebuilding team.
Cap: Their cap is pretty gnarly next year, but clears up nicely after that. The sense is that the Cavs aren't playing for next year anyway, but are taking a long view, so I think their cap reflecting that makes sense.
Picks: Have a ton of second round picks that probably won't amount to much. Also have their own 2003 and 2004 picks (when they're still likely to be bad) but I have a hard time giving kudos for that. Keeping your own picks is what I expect when you're a bad team. Criminal they don't have their own pick this year.
CELTICS - B+
Players: Stevie Franchise (undersized scorer), Steven Hunter (defensive-focused big) and... not much else, really. Francis is good, but he needs to be great and soon.
Cap: Have one ugly contract (Bobby Phills), but can probably work around that. Will have less cap than it looks like right now when chasing free agents next year because of...
Picks: Have FIVE first-round picks this year. Only one pick is lottery, but they're scattered pretty evenly through the draft so the Celtics will always be a threat to move up this year. 3 picks in the next 2 years... that's going to help, too.
CLIPPERS - C+
Players: Ricky Davis is their only young player of note, but he has rounded into a solid starter at the tender age of 22. He looks' to be the face of the Clippers after the Nick Van Exel era concludes.
Cap: No space to speak of next year, most likely, and still pretty crowded in 2003. Would like more flexibility sooner.
Picks: Have their own picks the next three seasons. Nothing worth dinging them for (like trading them away) or cheering (accumulating other teams' picks).
GRIZZLIES - B+
Players: Core of Marion, Gasol, Carter looks very promising as all three players should grow into all-star caliber players. It will just take adding the right fringe pieces around them.
Cap: Don't like the Steve Nash deal, but otherwise a nice clean cap. Will have to pay Vince Carter next year but should still have enough money to dangle a max deal to someone if they want to.
Picks: Have their own pick in 2002 and 2004, and that's it. Probably not getting a lot of value in the draft from those picks.
HAWKS - F+
Players: The Hawks' entire core is 27 or above, meaning that 3 years from now, all of their key players will be on the decline. The only players they can reasonably expect will improve are Jeff Foster (offensively-challenged big man), Eddie House (could grow into an undersized three and D guy) and possibly Desmond Mason (who only has one potential rating better than a C).
Cap: The Hawks have no significant cap relief in sight. At some point soon the luxury tax will catch up to them and they'll have to shed salary.
Picks: They have their own draft pick this year (#29) and no picks in 2003. The only silver lining is that they at least have their 2004 pick if that becomes their rebuild year but other than that they have no great future assets to speak of. It's that small silver lining that takes their F to an F+.
HEAT - D-
Players: The future is... um... Joel Przybilla? They waited too long to try to unload Payton for a rebuild package and now they're old and bad. At least it's clear they're rebuilding now.
Cap: Payton's contract is a huge problem now, and they compounded it with Delk, Anderson, and Alvin Williams. The cap situation here is not pretty until 2004.
Picks: They have their own picks - good for a rebuilding squad but no brownie points - and do have the Spurs' 1st this year. It's not much but it's something.
HORNETS - D+
Players: Ron Artest is rounding into a nice player and Nesterovic, Glover, and Thomas all have the potential to turn into niche - but useful - bench pieces.
Cap: They've got quite a bit of money committed to their core next year, but they're a top-5 team in the East at the moment, and should have close to enough to offer a max next year, so that's forgiveable. Their books are pretty clean after that (though they will have to max Artest).
Picks: Have their own 2003 as a ripcord in case of emergency, otherwise the cupboard is bare. That's... a little less margin for error than I'd like.
JAZZ - B
Players: The Duncan/Wells/Marbury trio is going to be the mainstay of the Jazz' young nucleus for the foreseeable future. They're all 25, so they should age well together, and when you've got a young MVP (Duncan) locked up you're always in good shape.
Cap: Yeah, that Shawn Bradley contract looks worse by the day. The Jazz aren't going to have any cap flexibility until they ditch his team option for 2004.
Picks: Have their own 2003 and 2004 picks, which won't be great because they will be pretty good.
KINGS - B-
Players: I love the potential of McGrady and Arenas, but the next-youngest King is a 27-year-old Daniels. The Kings have swept away almost all of their young core of a couple of years ago... I used to be higher on their ceiling.
Cap: I don't like the Daniels contract. McGrady is deserving of a max, Daniels less so, and he'll be the guy they have to work contracts around. They'll have enough cap space to offer a max next season, but are pretty much capped out from then on if they get another max guy in.
Picks: Have their own 2002 and 2004 picks, so reinforcements in the draft aren't likely coming.
KNICKS - C+
Players: They have no young players worth noting... sorry Charlie Bell.
Cap: Next season they have more salary tied up than I'd like for a rebuilding team... but at least their books are basically clean after that.
Picks: Have 5 picks over the next two seasons, including a guaranteed top-4 pick this year and two picks (their own and the Cavaliers) that project to be high lottery picks next season in the LeBron sweepstakes. This should get them back on the path to respectability.
LAKERS - A-
Players: Their young core is KG, AK47, and Larry Hughes... all young defensive studs. It's no accident the Lakers are grinding teams on defense.
Cap: With Hughes due for a big raise this year and AK47 due for a big raise the following year, the Lakers have enough cap flexibility to pay their guys, but will have a hard time adding free agents to their squad... but with a core that finished #1 in the West this season and only Jason Kidd looking like he might start to erode in the next 3 years, the Lakers can live with that.
Picks: Have all their own picks, so nothing special here.
76ERS - B-
Players: The Sixers have a nice young backcourt brewing with Hamilton and Baron Davis. They can count on keeping both players in RFA after the 2002 season, so they're set quite comfortably for the foreseeable future.
Cap: The Sixers are set to have very little on the books next season and if Erick Dampier opts out could be in an incredibly good cap situation. They will have to tie up quite a bit of cap in 2003 for Davis and Hamilton, but they have as much flexibility as anyone at this point.
Picks: Traded away picks to clear their books; they have the Blazers' 2002 first (late) and their own 2003 first-round pick in case their rebuild-on-the-fly goes sour this season. Would have been nice to see them keep a 2004 pick and/or their own 2002.
BUCKS - B+
Players: Ginobili and Randolph are their marquee future pieces, and Magloire and Mihm are young, cheap, interesting pieces as well. You can see some of the groundwork here, even if it will take time for them to grow. Only complaint is I wish Manu and Z-Bo were a little farther along in their development.
Cap: Most of their money is tied up in rookie deals, and those tend to be longer-term deals at that. The Bucks are in great shape with the cap.
Picks: Their own 2002 pick should net them another solid young piece. I like the Sonics' 2004 pick as well, since the Sonics decided to build old. They also have the Grizzlies' pick in 2003 and their own 2004 pick which should be less valuable as I expect both squads to have more or less grown into their young players' potential by the time these picks come up.
BULLS - A-
Players: Miller, Thomas, Jackson, Bryant, Bibby are a killer young starting five, and Walker, Szczerbiak, and LaFrentz are at least decent bench pieces. The problem is with two of those guys already on max deals and four more hitting RFA this season, the Bulls' cap space is about to wither - they can't keep them all this season, let alone in the future. Realistically, I'd expect them to try to keep their starting five intact and let the other guys walk.
Cap: Their cap looks decent now... until you realize Miller and Bibby are going to get PAID this offseason. Their cap situation will get very bad very fast unless they are willing to lose talent.
Picks: They have their own picks in 2003 and 2004... which, if they keep their talent together, won't be lottery picks but might provide a little depth. Not much future assets to be had here without losing young players.
CAVALIERS - C-
Players: Michael Redd and maybe DerMarr Johnson comprise the young potential here. They have a lot of guys in their late 20's on reasonable contracts that might be flippable for other, younger assets... but for a futures grade, get them no points now. One player to build around is a nice start, but honestly, kind of expected given they're a rebuilding team.
Cap: Their cap is pretty gnarly next year, but clears up nicely after that. The sense is that the Cavs aren't playing for next year anyway, but are taking a long view, so I think their cap reflecting that makes sense.
Picks: Have a ton of second round picks that probably won't amount to much. Also have their own 2003 and 2004 picks (when they're still likely to be bad) but I have a hard time giving kudos for that. Keeping your own picks is what I expect when you're a bad team. Criminal they don't have their own pick this year.
CELTICS - B+
Players: Stevie Franchise (undersized scorer), Steven Hunter (defensive-focused big) and... not much else, really. Francis is good, but he needs to be great and soon.
Cap: Have one ugly contract (Bobby Phills), but can probably work around that. Will have less cap than it looks like right now when chasing free agents next year because of...
Picks: Have FIVE first-round picks this year. Only one pick is lottery, but they're scattered pretty evenly through the draft so the Celtics will always be a threat to move up this year. 3 picks in the next 2 years... that's going to help, too.
CLIPPERS - C+
Players: Ricky Davis is their only young player of note, but he has rounded into a solid starter at the tender age of 22. He looks' to be the face of the Clippers after the Nick Van Exel era concludes.
Cap: No space to speak of next year, most likely, and still pretty crowded in 2003. Would like more flexibility sooner.
Picks: Have their own picks the next three seasons. Nothing worth dinging them for (like trading them away) or cheering (accumulating other teams' picks).
GRIZZLIES - B+
Players: Core of Marion, Gasol, Carter looks very promising as all three players should grow into all-star caliber players. It will just take adding the right fringe pieces around them.
Cap: Don't like the Steve Nash deal, but otherwise a nice clean cap. Will have to pay Vince Carter next year but should still have enough money to dangle a max deal to someone if they want to.
Picks: Have their own pick in 2002 and 2004, and that's it. Probably not getting a lot of value in the draft from those picks.
HAWKS - F+
Players: The Hawks' entire core is 27 or above, meaning that 3 years from now, all of their key players will be on the decline. The only players they can reasonably expect will improve are Jeff Foster (offensively-challenged big man), Eddie House (could grow into an undersized three and D guy) and possibly Desmond Mason (who only has one potential rating better than a C).
Cap: The Hawks have no significant cap relief in sight. At some point soon the luxury tax will catch up to them and they'll have to shed salary.
Picks: They have their own draft pick this year (#29) and no picks in 2003. The only silver lining is that they at least have their 2004 pick if that becomes their rebuild year but other than that they have no great future assets to speak of. It's that small silver lining that takes their F to an F+.
HEAT - D-
Players: The future is... um... Joel Przybilla? They waited too long to try to unload Payton for a rebuild package and now they're old and bad. At least it's clear they're rebuilding now.
Cap: Payton's contract is a huge problem now, and they compounded it with Delk, Anderson, and Alvin Williams. The cap situation here is not pretty until 2004.
Picks: They have their own picks - good for a rebuilding squad but no brownie points - and do have the Spurs' 1st this year. It's not much but it's something.
HORNETS - D+
Players: Ron Artest is rounding into a nice player and Nesterovic, Glover, and Thomas all have the potential to turn into niche - but useful - bench pieces.
Cap: They've got quite a bit of money committed to their core next year, but they're a top-5 team in the East at the moment, and should have close to enough to offer a max next year, so that's forgiveable. Their books are pretty clean after that (though they will have to max Artest).
Picks: Have their own 2003 as a ripcord in case of emergency, otherwise the cupboard is bare. That's... a little less margin for error than I'd like.
JAZZ - B
Players: The Duncan/Wells/Marbury trio is going to be the mainstay of the Jazz' young nucleus for the foreseeable future. They're all 25, so they should age well together, and when you've got a young MVP (Duncan) locked up you're always in good shape.
Cap: Yeah, that Shawn Bradley contract looks worse by the day. The Jazz aren't going to have any cap flexibility until they ditch his team option for 2004.
Picks: Have their own 2003 and 2004 picks, which won't be great because they will be pretty good.
KINGS - B-
Players: I love the potential of McGrady and Arenas, but the next-youngest King is a 27-year-old Daniels. The Kings have swept away almost all of their young core of a couple of years ago... I used to be higher on their ceiling.
Cap: I don't like the Daniels contract. McGrady is deserving of a max, Daniels less so, and he'll be the guy they have to work contracts around. They'll have enough cap space to offer a max next season, but are pretty much capped out from then on if they get another max guy in.
Picks: Have their own 2002 and 2004 picks, so reinforcements in the draft aren't likely coming.
KNICKS - C+
Players: They have no young players worth noting... sorry Charlie Bell.
Cap: Next season they have more salary tied up than I'd like for a rebuilding team... but at least their books are basically clean after that.
Picks: Have 5 picks over the next two seasons, including a guaranteed top-4 pick this year and two picks (their own and the Cavaliers) that project to be high lottery picks next season in the LeBron sweepstakes. This should get them back on the path to respectability.
LAKERS - A-
Players: Their young core is KG, AK47, and Larry Hughes... all young defensive studs. It's no accident the Lakers are grinding teams on defense.
Cap: With Hughes due for a big raise this year and AK47 due for a big raise the following year, the Lakers have enough cap flexibility to pay their guys, but will have a hard time adding free agents to their squad... but with a core that finished #1 in the West this season and only Jason Kidd looking like he might start to erode in the next 3 years, the Lakers can live with that.
Picks: Have all their own picks, so nothing special here.