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Mamba’s Dead Wrong Playoff Predictions

Posted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 11:00 am
by MexicanMamba
3,042 Words


ALPHA


ROUND ONE


(1) San Antonio Spurs (BYE)


(2) Orlando Magic vs. (7) Dallas Mavericks


Season series:

5-0, Magic.

Besides one close game (3 points) in Dallas, the Magic handled the Mavericks throughout the season with relative ease.


Key to the game(s):

For the Magic, the two players who were generally involved in the team’s success against the Mavericks during the season was (surprise, surprise) Tex Harrison and Ronnie Reynolds. The Mavericks do have the offensive firepower on the perimeter to combat the Magic’s strong duo, but the problem is that most of the Mavs’ wings do not play much defense. Morley has a knack for steals, which obviously the game loves considering he got All-Defensive honors, but his on-ball skills are lacking.

Perhaps even more important than those two, is the play of their Point Guard, John Blakemore. No, he is not the dynamic player that Tex and Reynolds are, but looking through the box scores of this series and you can see a massive difference between the teams in the assist category. I think the Magic’s wide open, ball movement focused offensive attack is difficult for the Magic to defend and Blakemore’s passing ability is at the front of that.

For Dallas, they will need Carner to step-up to disrupt Blakemore to get them out of their normal offense in ways that he did not seem capable of doing all throughout the regular season. Kuyekendall and Morley will obviously have to continue to keep pace with Harrison and Reynolds as well. I believe Jack Ortega is the most important piece for the Mavericks though, as he should have a match-up that he should easily be able to exploit now that Felicio is out for the entirety of these playoffs. If Ortega can grab his match-up and dominate, it could alter the rest of the Magic’s game plan.


Winner:

I think these games were far too one-sided during the regular season to expect much different in the post-season. A full match-up without Felicio will be interesting to keep an eye on, but I still see the Magic moving on in this one.

Magic, 4-1


(3) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Phoenix Suns


Season series:

2-2

Besides their first game (a Suns win), the rest of the games between these two teams were only separated by a few possessions. Each team won at home and on the road.


Key to the game(s):

Denver is going to have to get Burt Gibson going on offense and keep Ben Franklin out of foul trouble on defense. Though Norris Turney is a very good offensive player, he will need help to keep his season alive and this is exactly why the Nuggets decided to grab Gibson before the deadline. An experienced, former champion could prove invaluable here. Franklin will also be key because he gets the unenviable task of slowing down the Suns’ rising star, Ronny Asher, who broke out during the season as a 20-10 player. Franklin and Asher play such different styles as a traditional power player vs a stretch-4, finesse guy. Franklin will want to avoid tangling in the mud too often or else he’ll find himself watching far too many important stretches of the game from the bench.

In Phoenix, Dangerfield will need to continue to dominate the Nuggets the way he did all season long. He was well into double digit assists in every game, showing a command of the offense and dictating the tempo. His scoring will important as well, but its his ability to control the game that will be most valuable. As a team overall, the Suns need to be able to hit their long ball. In their two wins vs Denver this season, the Suns shot better than 40% from the three-point line but around 30% in the two losses. If they are consistent with that, they have a shot at pulling the upset. They’ll also need someone (anyone) else to step-up and help carry the scoring load. Deni isn’t a natural scorer. Neither is Carle. Perhaps they can get Quakenbush to be more assertive or maybe Sims or Nicks can provide the spark. No matter who, they need a 3rd guy to step-up.



Winner:

While I do believe the Suns have the horses to pull an upset, I still am going to roll with Ryan’s playoff acumen here.

4-2, Nuggets.


(4) Sacramento Kings vs. (5) Chicago Bulls


Season series:

2-1, Bulls

Okay, maybe I’m nuts but I’m only finding three games between these two. I’m used to seeing 2, 4 or 5 game matchups depending on the conference/division of the teams. Either way, of these 3, two were blowouts (one for each team) and the other was a 2-point win for Chicago. In other words, I don’t know what to take from it.


Key(s) to the game:

The Bulls will (of course) need Delmar Lopez and Richard Hunt to show up and show out. Last season and now especially this one, Delmar is the straw that stirs the drink. If he performs at a high level, they at least have a shot against almost anyone on any given night. A big key though will be finding extra help from somewhere. Without Gibson, the team has not been nearly as strong as before. Leonard Washington was a solid addition, but camp took a bite out of him. The trade for Bradley Connell was supposed to be the cure to this issue, but we may be learning that he is more of a roster cancer than a cure.

For the Kings, the answers are all the obvious ones. Their three-headed attack must come to work and ready to get dirty. Addington has the most desirable matchups, but Hayes and Lewis have to continue to prove they are worth the money and accolades that they receive.


Winner:

4-3, Kings

Though I trust Josh far more, and obviously Delmar does not have an equal in this match-up, these teams have been inconsistent, and I am only going with the Kings because they hold home-court. Obviously, I’m ready to be proven dead wrong about this.


ROUND TWO


(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (4) Sacramento Kings


Season series:

4-1, Spurs

One-sided, though two of those Kings losses were by a combined 5 points so things could have swung relatively easily.

Key(s):

Even though they missed out on the top overall seed by a game, I see the Spurs as the favorite to win the championship this season. So, their keys are just to continue doing what they do. Yandell attack, Whitley scores, OG bullies people downlow and Montoya and whoever plays Center just doesn’t screw up too badly. They’re a great team that could end up greater if Carlos decides to take the season more seriously.

The Kings must shoot better than 8% from 3 like they did in the last game of the season vs the Spurs, which was a 1-point game. The games they won or kept close, the Kings kept the rebounding close or won. In the losses? The Spurs grabbed everything. So, shoot better and hustle to the ball.


Winner:

4-1, Spurs.

I’ll keep the same energy that the regular season showed up. I’d like to see the Kings offer up more resistance than this though, so we’ll see what happens.


(2) Orlando Magic vs. (3) Denver Nuggets


Season series:

3-2, Magic

A back and forth affair regarding who won AND how close the games were. 2 games were decided by slim margins, and 2 were massive blowouts. Both teams won games on the road as well.


Key(s) to the game:

For this I’ll focus primarily on the final two games between these two (they split, 1-1) since those games reflected the absence of Felicio from the Magic’s lineups. Though even those games were wildly different. Tex Harrison and Ronnie Reynolds were the constant strong points for the Magic, but Blakemore had a poor game in the loss. So, getting Blakemore going and getting something positive from one of their front court players could make this series a lot easier for them.

Denver needs Burt Gibson to either pick up his game against a difficult defensive assignment in Ronnie Reynolds, or there needs to be some lineup shifting to try getting Gibson into a more beneficial match-up, because he struggled in the last couple games, even in their win.


Winner:

4-2, Magic

Felicio being out has not caught up with the Magic yet, and I do not believe that the Nuggets have the personnel to change that. The Nuggets’ strengths are similar to Orlando’s, but the Magic have the better players overall.

ROUND THREE


(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (2) Orlando Magic


Season series:

2-1, Magic

While Orlando had great success against the #1 team in Alpha, we have not gotten an opportunity to see how they fare without Felicio as the injury occurred after their final meeting.


Key(s):

I’ve already mentioned it above. On both sides of this thing, it will probably come down to the match-ups in the post. The Spurs have the most dominate post player in the series in OG and he will have to absolutely take advantage of this situation because with Felicio, the Magic were able to control the games. Mata performed admirably against OG with Felicio behind him, but not sure how he will react without that giant presence missing.

Winner:

4-2, Spurs

This is just where I see the Felicio injury coming into play.

OMEGA


ROUND ONE


Los Angeles Clippers (BYE)



(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (7) Brooklyn Nets


Season series:


5-0, Thunder

Welp … moving on


Key(s) to the game:

This is very cut and dry. In almost every game in this series, the Nets failed to reach 100 points. They just have not been able to score against this team, which should never be an issue with a team that has Kostas, Fang and Olney. The Thunder did have the fewest points allowed on this season, which is why continuing that trend is their key, but it came partially because of a snail’s pace on offense. The Thunder try to slow everything to a grinding halt and mucky up the waters. In the Nets case, they get sunk into quick sand when playing these guys. They might have to quicken up the pace just to give the Thunder a new look and their Trio more opportunities at the basket.

Winner:

4-1, Thunder

There’s little to support the idea that the Nets will pull one of these games, but it’s the playoffs so, I’ll assume the players take at least one game personally.


(3) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (6) Washington Wizards


Season series:

4-0, 76ers


Key(s) to the game:

I hate to keep this as brief as I will, but I think this one is pretty cut and dry. The Wizards don’t really have an answer for Wiseman, Pearman or Winston. It isn’t that the Wizards don’t have some good players of their own, because Cassell, Mitchell and Silva are very solid players. Tasmin unfortunately is always in foul trouble, which will constantly throw game plans out of whack. Liberty is a solid distributor, but I think she’ll struggle to control the much more dynamic Cassius Winston.


Winner:

4-0, 76ers


(4) Indiana Pacers vs. (5) Detroit Pistons


Season series:


4-1, Pistons


Key(s) to the game:


I genuinely believe that this has the potential to be the most interesting 1st round match-up. What it ultimately boils down to is the Mitchell Robinson vs. Mike Burnham match-up. Both teams added good-to-great Centers for the season and for the Pacers to pull this one down, they will need Burnham to give Robinson everything he can handle. They only played once after the Burnham deal and Detroit won, on the road too where they struggled all season. Burnham was quite productive with 24 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks but he did nothing defensively to slow down M-Rob, who dominated with 35-11-3. Burnham will have to do better against him to take this one home.

Winner:

4-2, Pistons

I think I still trust Robinson to dominate more, even with another quality big body standing across from him. I am putting 6 games down because I know the Pistons struggle on the road, so if it goes 7 (which is quite possible), the Pacers have a great shot at taking this series home.


ROUND TWO


(1) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (5) Detroit Pistons


Season series:

3-2, Pistons

One of only a small handful of teams to get the better of my guys over the course of the season. Makes for quite the intriguing possible match-up.


Key(s) to the game:

The Pistons took three games from the Clippers by grinding them down. Though the Clippers have capable post defense, we are still a very small team. So, the Pistons were able to muddy the game up and make the Clippers work hard for every shot. Los Angeles is one of the best offensive teams in the league, but routinely against the Pistons they shot well below their season averages and even had one game where they only scored 78 points, which should be impossible with that lineup. Detroit will have to continue to find ways to keep the Clippers’ scoring inefficient and if Mitchell Robinson can get Zeke Nnaji into foul trouble, even better. For the Clippers, we have to find ways to get easier buckets even when the game gets dirty. They key might be Nikolas Lynch taking advantage of Powell on a consistent basis.

Winner:


4-2, Clippers


I’m taking the talent over the spread out in-season results now that the playoffs are here.


(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (3) Philadelphia 76ers


Season series:


2-2 with multiple tight games


Should be a good one!


Key(s) to the game:

The Thunder must figure out where Wiseman might hurt them the most and try to game plan to suppress that damage. The 76ers tend to mix-up their lineups a good amount, especially with Wiseman, who could almost play all 5 spots on the court at an All-Star level. They will also want to figure out exactly which Point Guard gives them the best opportunity to give Winston fits, as he is the key to the 76ers controlling the pace of the game. Which leads into the 76ers’ key, being they have to continue to be aggressive and attacking like they obviously prefer (look at the Pace, scoring leaders) but do so in an efficient way against the Thunder’s rough and tumble defense.

Winner:


4-3, 76ers

I know the pressure the Thunder defense puts on teams, but I think the 76ers are one of the teams that will figure it out as they have an incredibly dynamic trio of players leading the way.

ROUND THREE


(1) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (3) Philadelphia 76ers


Season series:


3-1, Clippers


Key(s) to the game:

Which team that loves to push the pace and score a lot of points can do so while remaining the most efficient? While also playing enough defense to hurt the other team? Looking at the season results, it was easily the Clippers. Even if we ignore the head-to-head results, the 76ers were #1 in pace and #1 in scoring while the Clippers were #3 in pace and #3 in scoring. The Clippers flip those ranking (#1 to the 76ers’ #3) in offensive efficiency. Where the real differences lie are on the defensive side of the ball. The Clippers were #4 in points allowed and #3 in defensive efficiency while the 76ers were #21 and #9 in those same categories. If those rankings remain true in the post-season, it could lead to some tough nights for Philly.

Winner:

4-2, Clippers

See: Above


FINALS


(1) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (1) San Antonio Spurs


Season series:


2-0, Spurs

This makes me have a sad, bitter beer face to even type. Guess the only positive is I also beat Josh’s Bulls 2-0 during the last regular season and we see how much that translated over when we faced off in the Finals.


Key(s) to the game:


The style that Carlos and I choose to play with this season could not be any different from one another, offensively. While we do both love to push pace, my team jacks the three up at the highest rate in the league and the Spurs want to go for body blows repeatedly, by attacking the paint and getting to the free throw line. Both teams were incredibly stout defensively throughout the year, even while playing at break neck speeds. Though the Spurs did win both regular season match-ups, those games were won by a combined 6 points, proving that these two squads are quite evenly matched.

Looking at the rosters, I think what may push the Spurs over the top is their size on the wing. The Clippers roll out an impressive trio on the wings in Loredo, Sterner and Jordan Johnson and normally they would have a size advantage themselves since they range between 6’4 and 6’9. However, Carlos is uniquely equipped to combat that with Yandell, Whitley and Montoya who stand between 6’6 and 6’11. Though neither Montoya or Whitley are particularly strong on defense, their size makes it difficult for players to score over and that is not taking into account the fact that OG is a great defender and shot blocker.

Winner:

4-3, Spurs

It would be quite a heart breaker for me to lose a second straight Finals in 7 games with game 7 being at home, but I do think this 1 vs 1 match-up would likely get us to another game 7 and for the reasons I have mentioned above, Carlos would have a great opportunity to pull it out. I know Carlos has not been very engaged this season, but I have seen his playoff work before. If we got to this point, I am sure that he’d be ready to go, and he has this tendency to throw out these weird as hell line-ups to throw you off-balance. All it takes in a close series is one of these line-ups to steal one road game and all bets are off.

I hope I’m wrong in this one, but, I can see The Spurs grabbing ring #5



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Re: Mamba’s Dead Wrong Playoff Predictions

Posted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 11:11 am
by MexicanMamba
+10

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